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Nate Silver Forecasts Kamala Harris’ Path to Victory


Pollster Nate Silver has predicted a path for Vice President Kamala Harris to potentially win the November 5 election through the “Blue Wall,” made up of 18 states and the District of Columbia that have consistently voted Democratic since 1992. Silver’s model suggests that if Harris wins key battleground states within the Blue Wall, she could secure victory, despite the 2016 election results won by President Donald Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, states that were later won by President Joe Biden in 2020.

Silver’s model indicates that Harris has a slight edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a 56 percent chance of winning Michigan and a 46 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Harris has a 53 percent chance of winning. National polls show Harris leading Trump by a small margin, but the Electoral College system, not the popular vote, determines the winner. Trump is leading Harris in other swing states but with a narrow margin in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

The 2024 campaign season has candidates heavily pursuing these key battleground states, with the potential outcome hanging on these states’ electoral votes. While the results are fluid and can change, Silver’s model currently suggests a path for Harris to secure the presidency if she can win the pivotal states within the Blue Wall. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns were reached for comment but have not responded yet.

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Photo credit www.newsweek.com

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