Portugal’s Early Election Brings Further Political Uncertainty
In Portugal’s early parliamentary election on Sunday, exit polls indicated that the ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is likely to secure the most votes but fall short of a full majority, raising concerns of continued political instability. This election marks the third in just three years, initiated after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s government failed to win a confidence vote last March amid allegations regarding his family’s consultancy firm—a claim he has denied.
The election highlighted pressing issues such as housing and immigration, amidst a backdrop of a decade characterized by fragile governance. Montenegro’s AD is projected to receive between 29% and 35.1% of the vote, similar to their performance in the previous election. The main opposition, the Socialist Party (PS), is expected to attract between 19.4% and 26%, closely rivaled by the far-right Chega party, which shows a notable increase from its last election result.
With the AD forecasted to acquire between 85 and 96 parliamentary seats—far less than the 116 needed for a majority—the potential for a minority government remains. Montenegro has ruled out partnerships with Chega, complicating the path ahead.
Public sentiment reflects growing disenchantment with traditional parties and political discourse, as expressed by voters like 63-year-old teacher Isabel Monteiro, who criticized the campaign’s focus and relevance. Political analyst Antonio Costa Pinto noted that the new parliament might resemble the previous one, complicating predictions about government longevity.
Montenegro remains optimistic about achieving stability, stating that the outcome will largely depend on voters’ choices. As Portugal navigates its enduring political challenges, the possibility of a second consecutive minority government could hinder efforts to resolve a prolonged period of instability in the country of 10.6 million.
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