The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 expected to develop into hurricanes, and 3 to 5 categorized as major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). Meteorologist Ken Graham emphasized that while the forecasts do not indicate landfall locations or the exact number of storms that will impact the U.S., preparations should be made now. The predictions are influenced by warmer ocean temperatures and increased activity from the West African Monsoon, both associated with climate change.
Despite staffing challenges within the National Weather Service due to previous administrations’ cutbacks, NOAA leadership reassured that the National Hurricane Center is fully staffed and prioritizing readiness for upcoming storms. Local offices, however, face significant vacancies and will be crucial in advising on local effects like flooding and rainfall after hurricanes make landfall.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, peaking in late summer to early fall. NOAA’s predictions align with various independent forecasts, which estimate around 8 hurricanes for the season. The previous year witnessed an exceptionally active season, with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, leading to significant destruction and loss of life, exemplified by Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, which intensified rapidly as they approached the coast. A study has shown that rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been on the rise, making the impacts of climate change increasingly relevant in hurricane forecasting and preparedness.
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