In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers faced a daunting 9-point deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder with just 2 minutes and 52 seconds remaining, leading ESPN’s win probability model to give them only a 3.6% chance of winning. Remarkably, the Pacers defied the odds, coming back to win 111-110 and taking a 1-0 lead in the series. This victory, however, was not even the most improbable of their playoff run. Throughout the 2025 postseason, the Pacers showcased a remarkable ability to stage comebacks, achieving at least one miraculous win in every playoff round.
In Game 5 of the conference quarterfinals against the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana overcame a 7-point deficit in the final 39 seconds of overtime, with a mere 2.1% chance of winning, ultimately winning 119-118. In the conference semifinals’ Game 2, they rallied from a 7-point deficit against the Cleveland Cavaliers with only 57.1 seconds left, winning 120-119 despite a 4.1% probability of victory. The most astonishing comeback occurred in Game 1 of the conference finals against the New York Knicks, where they turned around a 14-point deficit with just 2 minutes and 51 seconds to play, winning 138-135 in overtime despite only a 0.3% chance of succeeding.
Winning all four of these improbable games is statistically unlikely, comparable to the low odds of rare events, such as being struck by lightning. The Pacers’ resilience in the face of adversity has established them as the comeback kings of the 2025 playoffs.
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