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Myanmar regime braces for ‘violent, messy’ elections four years after coup


Myanmar’s 2024 census was marked by violence and controversy, with attacks on census takers leading to a failed attempt to document the population. The census, conducted by the military government, was seen as a step towards a national election, the first since the coup in 2021. While the military portrays the election as a return to democracy, opposition forces view it as a way to legitimize the regime. The military’s goal of providing an “accurate” voter list is seen as a way to prevent voter fraud, despite criticism that the census lacked coverage in areas controlled by resistance groups.

The military’s control over less than half the country is evident in the incomplete census data. Despite claims of a successful census, reports of coercion and violence against participants raise questions about the regime’s legitimacy. The growing resistance to military rule has led to setbacks for the regime, with more towns and battalions falling to opposition forces.

The upcoming election is seen as a desperate move by the weakened military, with critics predicting a violent and messy process. Resistance groups threaten to disrupt the election, with attacks on military targets expected. Despite the risks, some believe that the elections are likely to happen this year, with China pushing for a dilution of Min Aung Hlaing’s power. As the country faces uncertainty and instability, the outcome of the upcoming election remains uncertain, with the military regime’s eventual collapse seen as inevitable.

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